| November 3rd, 2004 11:47 AM |
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| parmeda |
quote:
jb wrote:
My sources still have the opening date Feb 8th, 2005 at the Trocedereo in Philly!!! Look for the fan club special packages!!!
No.....look for flights & hotel packages in Chicago 
Hey jb...we had a lovely gathering at my home last night that lasted well into the wee hours. You should have been here...especially around 9pm when we threw my brother-in-law out on the curb.
I'll leave it at that... |
| November 3rd, 2004 11:48 AM |
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| jb |
quote:
glencar wrote:
Rudy G? Not sure. He makes many mistakes such as the one last week blaming the troops. Romney is possible.
Good analysis GC..look for JEB!!! |
| November 3rd, 2004 11:48 AM |
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| glencar |
Is your sister Teresa Heinz Kerry? |
| November 3rd, 2004 11:49 AM |
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| glencar |
Joshy, no jeb. He's already taken himself out of contention. |
| November 3rd, 2004 11:49 AM |
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| jb |
quote:
parmeda wrote:
No.....look for flights & hotel packages in Chicago
Hey jb...we had a lovely gathering at my home last night that lasted well into the wee hours. You should have been here...especially around 9pm when we threw my brother-in-law out on the curb.
I'll leave it at that...
Was there any "playing around"? |
| November 3rd, 2004 11:50 AM |
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| parmeda |
quote:
jb wrote:
Was there any "playing around"?
...as in? |
| November 3rd, 2004 11:53 AM |
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| jb |
quote:
parmeda wrote:
...as in?
Meine libe abs shae monkey? |
| November 3rd, 2004 12:05 PM |
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| parmeda |
jb, the "monkeys" were left intact.
However, a few baboons had their asses kicked. |
| November 3rd, 2004 12:11 PM |
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| charlotte |
ballot box
Simple but Effective
Why you keep losing to this idiot.
By William Saletan
Updated Wednesday, Nov. 3, 2004, at 12:05 AM PT
12:01 a.m. PT: Sigh. I really didn't want to have to write this.
George W. Bush is going to win re-election. Yeah, the lawyers will haggle about Ohio. But this time, Democrats don't have the popular vote on their side. Bush does.
If you're a Bush supporter, this is no surprise. You love him, so why shouldn't everybody else?
But if you're dissatisfied with Bush—or if, like me, you think he's been the worst president in memory—you have a lot of explaining to do. Why don't a majority of voters agree with us? How has Bush pulled it off?
I think this is the answer: Simplicity, simplicity, simplicity.
Bush is a very simple man. You may think that makes him a bad president, as I do, but lots of people don't—and there are more of them than there are of us. If you don't believe me, take a look at those numbers on your TV screen.
Think about the simplicity of everything Bush says and does. He gives the same speech every time. His sentences are short and clear. "Government must do a few things and do them well," he says. True to his word, he has spent his political capital on a few big ideas: tax cuts, terrorism, Iraq. Even his electoral strategy tonight was powerfully simple: Win Florida, win Ohio, and nothing else matters. All those lesser states—Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire—don't matter if Bush reels in the big ones.
This is what so many people like about Bush's approach to terrorism. They forgive his marginal and not-so-marginal screw-ups, because they can see that fundamentally, he "gets it." They forgive his mismanagement of Iraq, because they see that his heart and will are in the right place. And while they may be unhappy about their economic circumstances, they don't hold that against him. What you and I see as unreflectiveness, they see as transparency. They trust him.
Now look at your candidate, John Kerry. What quality has he most lacked? Not courage—he proved that in Vietnam. Not will—he proved that in Iowa. Not brains—he proved that in the debates. What Kerry lacked was simplicity. Bush had one message; Kerry had dozens. Bush had one issue; Kerry had scores. Bush ended his sentences when you expected him to say more; Kerry went on and on, adding one prepositional phrase after another, until nobody could remember what he was talking about. Now Bush has two big states that mean everything, and Kerry has a bunch of little ones that add up to nothing.
If you're a Democrat, here's my advice. Do what the Republicans did in 1998. Get simple. Find a compelling salesman and get him ready to run for president in 2008. Put aside your quibbles about preparation, stature, expertise, nuance, and all that other hyper-sophisticated garbage that caused you to nominate Kerry. You already have legions of people with preparation, stature, expertise, and nuance ready to staff the executive branch of the federal government. You don't need one of them to be president. You just need somebody to win the White House and appoint them to his administration. And that will require all the simplicity, salesmanship, and easygoing humanity they don't have.
The good news is, that person is already available. His name is John Edwards. If you have any doubt about his electability, just read the exit polls from the 2004 Democratic primaries. If you don't think he's ready to be president—if you don't think he has the right credentials, the right gravitas, the right subtlety of thought—ask yourself whether these are the same things you find wanting in George W. Bush. Because evidently a majority of the voting population of the United States doesn't share your concern. They seem to be attracted to a candidate with a simple message, a clear focus, and a human touch. You might want to consider their views, since they're the ones who will decide whether you're sitting here again four years from now, wondering what went wrong.
In 1998 and 1999, Republicans cleared the field for George W. Bush. Members of Congress and other major officeholders threw their weight behind him to make sure he got the nomination. They united because their previous presidential nominee, a clumsy veteran senator, had gone down to defeat. They were facing eight years out of power, and they were hungry.
Do what they did. Give Edwards a job that will position him to run for president again in a couple of years. Clear the field of Hillary Clinton and any other well-meaning liberal who can't connect with people outside those islands of blue on your electoral map. Because you're going to get a simple president again next time, whether you like it or not. The only question is whether that president will be from your party or the other one.
9:33 p.m. PT: That proviso about the exit polls matching the returns is looking quite a bit more important now than it did three hours ago. Bush has Florida and Colorado in the bag. All scenarios for a Kerry victory now require Ohio.
Kerry led 51-49 in the Ohio exit poll this afternoon. But he also led 51-49 in the Florida exit poll, and we've seen what happened there. Nationwide, the exit polls had Kerry up 51-48. But with 80 million votes counted already, it's Bush who has a 51-48 lead. So at this point, the exit polls are at best meaningless. Or worse, if you're a Democrat, the six-point gap between what the exit polls predicted for Kerry nationally and what the returns show so far means that in Ohio, a two-point lead for Kerry in the exit poll foreshadows a Bush win by as many as four points.
In New Mexico, two-thirds of the precincts have reported, and it doesn't look good for Kerry: He's down 51-48. So even if he takes Iowa, where he's now leading with two-thirds of the vote tallied, he'll have to win either Nevada, which has just begun counting, or Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, he's hanging on to a 14,000-vote lead—that's a single percentage point—with half the precincts reporting. If Kerry holds that lead in Wisconsin and closes what is now a 120,000-vote Bush lead in Ohio, he's the next president. Or if he holds his lead in Iowa and picks off Nevada, he can get the same result—but not without Ohio.
Three-quarters of the precincts in Ohio have now reported, and Kerry still trails by 126,000 votes, about 3 percent of the total. I don't think he can pull it off. But I've been wrong so many times now that I'd be happy—no, really, in this case I would be positively delighted—to be proved wrong again.
7:38 p.m. PT: I should have mentioned before that if Bush wins both Ohio and Florida, he needs only Colorado to get to 269. So that's just two states where he needs the exit polls to be off. But in both cases the error has to be at least two points, in each case it has to be in his direction, and the Colorado exit poll can't be off in the other direction.
Let's simplify the calculations. Bush starts with a floor of 213. He leads by one point in the exit poll in Colorado, so let's assume he takes that state, putting him at 222.
Here are the remaining states in which Bush trails in the exit polls by fewer than 6 points: Nevada (Bush down 1), Iowa (Bush down 1), Florida (Bush down 2), Ohio (Bush down 2), New Mexico (Bush down 2), and Wisconsin (Bush down 3).
That's it. Those are all the states Bush has to work with.
If he wins them all, he gets to 296. So Kerry can lock up the election by taking any 28 electoral votes from that group. Here are the combinations that will do the job for Kerry:
1) Florida and any other state.
2) Ohio and Wisconsin.
3) Ohio and any two of the little three: Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa.
Two other variables could be in play. If Kerry takes Colorado, he can wrap up the election by taking a combination of Wisconsin and two of the little three. He won't have to win Ohio or Florida. But if Bush stages an upset in Hawaii, Kerry will have to take one of the little three in addition to Ohio and Wisconsin—or he'll have to take Ohio, Iowa, and either Nevada or New Mexico.
Those are the scenarios for now. I'll revisit them as the returns come in and the options narrow.
6:08 p.m. PT: We can't be sure how far tonight's returns will ultimately vary from the late-afternoon exit-poll numbers (see this "Press Box"). But with that understood, let's talk about what the numbers mean, if true, for the electoral map.
Bush gets to 189 electoral votes with no problem. Assuming he takes Virginia, he's at 202. With Missouri, where he's 5 points up in the exit polls, he's at 213. Now he needs Colorado. I never took this state seriously as a problem for him, but the afternoon numbers suggest it might be: He's up just a point there. Let's assume he takes it. Now he's at 222.
At this point, he has run out of states where he's leading in the exit polls, and he's still looking for a combination of 47 electoral votes to get him to 269. (He wins in the House if it's a tie.) The next best shots are Nevada and Iowa, where he's down a point. Let's say he takes them, too. Now he's at 234, still 35 electoral votes away—and he has run out of states where he's trailing by a single point. He'll have to start winning in places where he's trailing by two.
How about New Mexico? Let's give him that. Now he's at 239, but that's still not enough to win the election even if Florida comes around. He'll have to capture the other state where he's down two in the exit polls: Ohio. It seems a bit unfair, making him win a state with 20 electoral votes just to get the three he needs for a tie. Wouldn't it be easier to package Florida or Ohio with Wisconsin? Either combination gets him to 269 or beyond, so let's try that. Colorado plus Nevada plus Iowa plus New Mexico plus Wisconsin plus either Ohio or Florida.
For those of you doing the math at home, that's a Bush sweep of five states where the exit polls have him trailing, without losing a single state in which he leads. In three of those states, Bush's winning scenario requires the exit polls to be at least two points off. In Wisconsin, it requires the exit polls to be at least three points off.
And it gets uglier from there. Because if even one of these breaks doesn't go Bush's way, there is no remaining state on the board in which he trails by less than six in the exit polls. Bush can win this thing, but he'll need a lot of luck. More than he'll get, if you ask me.
William Saletan is Slate's chief political correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War.
Article URL: http://slate.msn.com/id/2109079/ |
| November 3rd, 2004 12:43 PM |
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| Strange_Stray_Cat |
Too bad that this fool did win again. |
| November 3rd, 2004 12:50 PM |
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| jb |
The only things I like about Bush is his refusal to cave in to France and Germany, and his steadfast support of Israel. At least Sharon will be able to finish the job of eliminating the terrorists' Hamas, Arafat, and the like....Maybe Yasser will re-locate to France.
[Edited by jb] |
| November 3rd, 2004 12:56 PM |
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| Prodigal Son |
Hey if anybody ever becomes disenfranchised with "democracy" down there in the U.S., you're welcome to come up here. WW3 will not be fought on the same battlegrounds and premises of the previous, so forget about the same casualties. No country poses a giant threat at the moment capable of causing WW3. It's a movement, not a nation that we have to fear. And also, with Bush back in business ncould this be the bleakest America has looked in 30 years? Everything's cyclical, though. Good times will return like it was in the late 80s-90s. But although I'm proud to have the US as a neighbour, it honestly worries me; some of the things going on. Canadians like me need not get too caught up in it, though. Just enjoy the ride as it comes. |
| November 3rd, 2004 12:59 PM |
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| jb |
People forget that 58 million people are ecstatic today..we, the dems, are the minority!!! Get over it and realize this is a republican, god fearing country....and it shall remain that way for a very long time..They won and the spoils go to the victors....they simply wanted it more and fought harder... |
| November 3rd, 2004 01:14 PM |
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| Jumacfly |
quote:
jb wrote:
The only good thing is that Bush will continue to piss the French off..and I support him on that 100%!!!
Get a life hombre...we don t like him but don t really care too...it s like me, I don t care about you you see??? |
| November 3rd, 2004 01:17 PM |
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| Jumacfly |
quote:
jb wrote:
if you vote for kERRY YOU SUPPORT GAY MARRIAGES.....
[Edited by jb]
like you with Joey I presume?? |
| November 3rd, 2004 01:19 PM |
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| Jumacfly |
quote:
jb wrote:
...Maybe Yasser will re-locate to France.
[Edited by jb]
I was with him this afternoon at this hospital, he plans new Corned beef parties in Israel.. |
| November 3rd, 2004 01:23 PM |
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| KeepRigid |
I hope you all voted, if not, may P. Diddy have mercy on your soul.
Anyway, kudos to Kerry for not trying to drag this thing out. It was the proverbial choice of cancer or polio, but it's still sad to see so many people voting out of fear.
Fortunately, the days are numbered for the axis of evil known as the UK...and a big "Fuck You" to Bin Laden as we toss him squarely into the briar patch.
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| November 3rd, 2004 01:23 PM |
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| Blind Dog McGhee |
quote:
jb wrote:
The only things I like about Bush is his refusal to cave in to France and Germany, and his steadfast support of Israel. At least Sharon will be able to finish the job of eliminating the terrorists' Hamas, Arafat, and the like....Maybe Yasser will re-locate to France.
[Edited by jb]
speaking of WWIII, anyone read this one yet?
On the Road to Armageddon: How Evangelicals Became Israel's Best Friend
by Timothy P. Weber (Hardcover )
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| November 3rd, 2004 01:32 PM |
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| jb |
Indeed..the evangelicals know that without a secure Israel, Jesus cannot return, kill all the non-believers(Jews) and allow all the good Christians into heaven....strange bed fellows, but it works!!! |
| November 3rd, 2004 01:43 PM |
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| Martha |
quote:
jb wrote:
Indeed..the evangelicals know that without a secure Israel, Jesus cannot return, kill all the non-believers(Jews) and allow all the good Christians into heaven....strange bed fellows, but it works!!!
I am not a Christian so you have to count me in to that death count as well jb. I know my days are numbered.
Where would you recommend we move to? I want to live out the rest of my life peacefully.
"I'm on the fringes of the night, fighting back tears I can't control.
Some people ain't human they got no heart or soul
Well I'm crying to the Lord--I'm tryin'to be meek and mild" |
| November 3rd, 2004 01:47 PM |
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| jb |
quote:
Martha wrote:
I am not a Christian so you have to count me in to that death count as well jb. I know my days are numbered.
Where would you recommend we move to? I want to live out the rest of my life peacefully.
"I'm on the fringes of the night, fighting back tears I can't control.
Some people ain't human they got no heart or soul
Well I'm crying to the Lord--I'm tryin'to be meek and mild"
see SDH..he made the transition...otherwise I recommend beautiful Boca Raton with it's Mizner inspired homes, golf courses , fine dining and shopping, and large jewish population. |
| November 3rd, 2004 01:48 PM |
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| Angiegirl |
Kerry will be on in minutes, I sorta feel for the poor soul. I know, I'm a big softie. I miss Clinton, that says enough |
| November 3rd, 2004 01:53 PM |
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| jb |
quote:
Angiegirl wrote:
Kerry will be on in minutes, I sorta feel for the poor soul. I know, I'm a big softie. I miss Clinton, that says enough
I like Kerry too..he was too fucking smart for the job..Clinton was also too smart, but he had the Bubba appeal. |
| November 3rd, 2004 01:55 PM |
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| Angiegirl |
quote:
jb wrote:
I like Kerry too..he was too fucking smart for the job..Clinton was also too smart, but he had the Bubba appeal.
yeaaaaaaaaaah! I found Clinton really appealing, still do. Saw him standing beside Kerry the other week and poor Kerry doesn't have anything. He's just too smart and no attraction at all, too bad. |
| November 3rd, 2004 02:10 PM |
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| Joey |
quote:
Angiegirl wrote:
yeaaaaaaaaaah! I found Clinton really appealing, still do. Saw him standing beside Kerry the other week and poor Kerry doesn't have anything. He's just too smart and no attraction at all, too bad.
Angie ..........................
I'm having a bad day . Not only did John Kerry lose the election , but another " New - Hire " has been assigned to our team and he too has a copy of " The Pet Shop Boys Greatest Hits " lying on his desk . WTF ?!?!
Shiver .................................
Jacky ! ™
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| November 3rd, 2004 02:13 PM |
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| Angiegirl |
Joey, that's because you're projecting one thing and want another, this confuses people. Scratch his disc, or ask to copy it and never return it, or replace it with a Richard Marx Greatest Hits disc (someone here on RO can help you with this). Good luck bro!!! |
| November 3rd, 2004 02:14 PM |
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| Joey |
quote:
Martha wrote:
I have never felt so frightened in my life.
I have lost all hope.
For My Queen :
" I can't be held responsible for blown behaviour
I lost all contact with my only saviour
No-one locked me out because I failed to phone up
I can't bear to live forever like a loner
I won't let go the coat
Your friends all pass for life is just a market
But you have to finish everything you started
So I live my life tearing down the runway
Sure to get the hang of hanging in there someday
Don't let go the coat
Won't get no more chances - forget the war dances
Go blind and hang on - don't try the slang son
Never let go the coat......................."
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| November 3rd, 2004 02:17 PM |
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| Joey |
quote:
not bound to please wrote:
...on three buck chuck...
That's a Sammy Hagar song .
Jacky ! ™
Jacky ! ™ ... Jacky ! ™ ... Jacky ! ™
...........................................................
[Edited by Joey] |
| November 3rd, 2004 02:27 PM |
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| blueswave |
Joey said "I just barfed". Thanks for making me laugh!! LOL |
| November 3rd, 2004 02:27 PM |
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| stewed & Keefed |
Just heard Kerry's speech on TV  (where's the sick bag) I thank God i'm English.
[Edited by stewed & Keefed] |
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